2023 has been a turning point for the video game industry in many ways: not only because of the large number of truly hit video games (from Baldur’s Gate 3 to Hi-Fi Rush), but also because of difficult reorganization processes (mass layoffs, voice actor strikes, mergers of large companies). That is why a lot is expected from 2024: technologies, developing by leaps and bounds, throw new challenges to game developers. We tell you about the ten main trends of this year: not a forecast, but a significant part of this may well happen in the near future.
Industry growth will continue
It sounds like a trivial truth, but in reality, everything is not so simple: in 2022, according to the report of the leading company in the field of video game market Eerone, the revenue of studios from PC and console games amounted to $92.3 billion – 2.2% less than in 2021. While in 2023, on the contrary, growth is outlined: mobile games, the undisputed leader in the industry, “sagged” by 1.6%, and PCs and consoles “gained” 5.2% and 1.6%, respectively. There is no doubt that this trend will continue: after numerous high-profile and often negative events that stormed the industry in 2023 (the failure of several highly anticipated projects, mass layoffs, Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard), the situation will gradually normalize. This will be facilitated by other trends, which will be discussed below.
Mobile gaming will become even more popular
Despite the fact that we said above that the mobile gaming audience has decreased over the past year, this segment still remains dominant: in 2023, the number of users in it was 49% ($ 90.4 billion). There is no doubt that this figure will increase; this is facilitated, among other things, by new trends that have emerged over the past year – for example, the release of Triple-A games from consoles and PCs on mobile platforms (see the ports of Resident Evil: Village and the Resident Evil 4 remake for iPhones). Next in line are the “mobile” versions of such popular franchises as Assassin’s Creed and Call Of Duty, and these will not be truncated “runners” or “3-in-1”, but full-fledged parts of the corresponding level, specially developed for these platforms. Plus, the growth of the audience of games from miHoYo (Genshin Impact, Honkai: Star Rail) is also an important factor, especially in anticipation of their new game, Zenless Zone Zero.
There will be fewer games-services
At the same time, games like Genshin Impact and Honkai, as well as Fortnite, Apex Legends and other titles tied to in-app purchases, are oversaturating the games-as-services market, making it less accessible to newcomers: it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to break into it. Games need to hold out for a year or two, or even more, to “get going” and start generating income (given that they are usually distributed free-to-play, at least at the beginning). While there are dozens, if not hundreds, of such titles, even among the projects of the largest studios, it is becoming increasingly difficult to make money on such a model: giant competitors will crush them with their weight and number of users. It is worth expecting that companies will switch to developing more profitable, albeit more difficult to develop, AAA projects (see, for example, Spider-Man 2 from Insomniac Games). This will be facilitated by the gradual transition to the new, more advanced and “beautiful” Unreal Engine 5, as well as the development of technologies such as ray tracing.
Retro’s Rise in Popularity
Last year we saw increased interest from both players and studios in games from the past – sequels and remakes of old hits were released, such as Talos Principle 2, System Shock, Metroid Prime Remastered, Dead Space and Resident Evil 4. Let’s see what projects are coming out this year: Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, a sequel to the remake of the 1997 game (and they’ll also rework the 14th part!). Sequel to Dragon’s Dogma – the original game was released in 2012. New part Alone In the Dark – if you skip the absolutely disastrous Illumination of 2015, forgotten even by fans, the previous game in the series was released back in 2008. Remake of Silent Hill 2 – significantly reworked 23 years later. Re-release of Persona 3 for the latest consoles – the original game was released in 2006 on PlayStation 2, when there were still ten years left before the release of the hit fifth part, which opened the series of games to Western players. And then Sega has been gushing lately with re-releases of its old games – already done and future. Get ready to mix old schools: there will be more of this.
Merger of companies
Perhaps one of the loudest and most important events of the past year, along with mass layoffs, was Microsoft’s purchase of Activision Blizzard – the deal amounted to $68.7 million. What is epochal about this event? The deal was carried out for a decade and a half due to legal issues, including because industry players were afraid that Microsoft would approach the status of a monopoly by buying up the largest gaming studios. But it seems that this is only the beginning. A new twist in this story is talk about Saudi Arabia entering the market: a country with extremely controversial legislation (which is very relevant for developers from Western countries) and, at the same time, huge opportunities for doing business. This and other cases will, if not be implemented in the new year, then at least be discussed.
Everyone is waiting for the Nintendo Switch 2
The highly successful release of Steam Deck in 2022 is a continuation of the trend of past years towards the development of portable gaming. While large studios like Microsoft are developing the idea of cloud services, everyone around is fighting for the title of “Steam Deck killer”. However, Valve, the developers of the hit console, are probably much more interested in what the new console from Nintendo will be like – eight years have passed since the release of their previous device, the hit Switch, and although games are still being developed for it, the console-tablet has become technically very outdated. Because of this, there is no end to the talk about what will be in the new “owl”: either it is simply a technically more powerful version of the old device, or, traditionally for Nintendo, they will add some unique feature, as they have done every time before. In any case, the release of the new Switch this year, which is still shrouded in mystery, will be one of the main news.
Development of AR and VR technologies
And by “development” we mean a serious technological leap. Already, things like cloud gaming and blockchain allow us to greatly expand the capabilities of games in “augmented reality”, and VR helmets are turning from an outlandish toy into more and more accessible devices. Together, these technologies will receive an incredibly powerful impetus for development. The largest studios are taking on the development of full-fledged AAA games for VR helmets: for example, Guerrilla Games, the creators of the hit Horizon dilogy, made a spin-off Call of the Mountain for PlayStation VR2. With AR, everything is still somewhat more complicated due to the extreme “niche” nature of the product, but it is the rapid development of cloud services that can become a powerful impetus for the development of increasingly complex and technologically advanced games in this segment.
Development of cloud technologies
One of the reasons why Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard was so discussed was that people in the industry were afraid that the tech giant would become a monopolist in the field of cloud gaming. It’s funny, by the way, that in the end the rights to streaming games of the acquired company “Mikey” were sold to the French from Ubisoft. We should not forget about Google’s experience (albeit unsuccessful) with its Stadia service, which, although it closed, became an important milestone in the development of cloud gaming. Plus, forgive the pun, Netflix is slowly but surely breaking into the game – now, however, the audience of subscribers who play is only about 1%, but this may change in the new year – at least due to the announcement of a release based on the popular series “The Squid Game”. And if Netflix succeeds, they can make a lot of money on this: do not forget that the number of subscribers to Netflix is 238 million accounts, and this number is growing.
